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SBARG Research Areas

SBARG research interests concentrate on Climate Dynamics, Dynamic Meteorology, Regional atmospheric circulations and Wildfires in California.

Other Research Projects are found in http://clivac.eri.ucsb.edu


Current SBARG and CLIVAC Research Projects

National Science Foundation

Climate Variability and Impacts on Regional Surface Runoff in High Asia Mountains.

PI: L. Carvalho, Co-PI: B. Bookhagen, Co-PI: C. Jones

Period: 8/15/11 to 7/31/14

The current state and future fate of the ‘High Asian water towers’ (i.e., freshwater reservoirs at high elevations) are of central importance for water, food, and power supply of densely populated regions in south, east, and central Asia. In addition to the highly seasonal summer rainfall, winter precipitation is important for snowmelt and discharge in the pre-monsoon (spring) season. Runoff from snow is especially significant in the central Asian and western Himalayan regions, where hundreds of millions of people reside, but observation, understanding, and prediction of terrestrial water storage and fluxes remain poorly understood. Quantification of seasonal amounts of rain, snow, glacial and snowmelt waters and associated physical processes are largely unknown, despite their importance to pre-monsoon and dry-season water for irrigation, drinking and power generation.
The main goal of this project is to advance our current understanding of climate processes on regional-to-continental scales and how they affect the water balance in the High Asia Mountains. The project focuses on multiannual-to-decadal variations in the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and winter western disturbances (WD) and their impacts on rainfall, snow and runoff variability in High Asia. The project will focus on three specific objectives:
I. Characterize and investigate multi-annual-to-decadal variations in the Indian Summer Monsoon and western disturbances and their regional impacts on the surface water budget in the High Asia Mountains.
II. Examine the spatiotemporal variability of the surface water budget including changes in rainfall and snow and their relative roles in driving runoff variations in High Asia.
III. Develop case studies to investigate changes in Indian Summer Monsoon and western disturbances seasons and their influences on the long-term variability of snow and associated runoff in the High Asia Mountains. Changes in the Indian Summer Monsoon and western disturbances include extremely wet/dry monsoon seasons, high/low frequency and precipitation intensity of winter storms and teleconnections associated with warm/cold El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases.

National Science Foundation  

RAPID: Decadal Variability of the American Monsoons: An Assessment of CMIP5 Simulations

PI: L. Carvalho, Co-PI: C. Jones, Co-PI: Carolina Vera (CONICET, University of Buenos Aires, Argentina)

Period: 7/1/11 to 6/30/12

The main goals of this RAPID project are to: 1) develop an extensive assessment of how realistic simulations from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are in representing the observed characteristics of the American Monsoon Systems (AMS) in the recent past and 2) assess uncertainties in projected decadal climate changes in the AMS. The specific objectives are to:
I. Assess the skill of CMIP5 model simulations in representing the climatological and statistical characteristics of the monsoons in the Americas including: circulation and precipitation features, subseasonal variance, onsets and demises, amplitudes and cross equatorial transitions.
II. Determine which CMIP5 models realistically represent the spatiotemporal variability of the monsoons in the present climate including near-term trends, frequency of very dry/wet seasons and statistical distributions of extreme precipitation events.
III. Examine which CMIP5 models skillfully represent the observed relationships between remote forcings and the American monsoons. These include the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), Atlantic Ocean and Intra-Americas Sea forcings.
IV. Explore how much of the climate changes projected for the next decades in the Americas are explained by natural decadal variability and how much by greenhouse gases increases.

National Science Foundation  

The Madden-Julian Oscillation and Predictability of Extreme Precipitation in the United States

PI: C. Jones, Co-PI: L. Carvalho

Period: 7/15/11 to 6/30/14

Extreme precipitation events are among the most devastating weather phenomena and are oftentimes associated with loss of life and property. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability in the climate system and has significant influences on the occurrence of extreme precipitation and forecast skills in the medium-to-extended ranges. The main goal of this proposal is to advance our understanding of the influence of the MJO on the predictability of extreme precipitation in the contiguous United States on lead times of 1-14 days during boreal winter. The specific objectives are:
I. Examine how the amplitude of the MJO modulates the predictability of extreme precipitation.
II. Investigate the relationships between the life cycle of the MJO and predictive skill of extreme precipitation.
III. Study the mechanisms by which the MJO influences the predictability of extreme precipitation.
The project has two main elements: 1) develop a detailed analysis of the relationships between the MJO and its impact on the predictive skill of extreme precipitation, 2) Investigate teleconnection mechanisms by which distinct properties of the MJO may have different impacts on the predictability of extreme precipitation. The proposal will test the hypothesis that variations in the characteristics of the MJO (e.g., amplitude, duration and eastward propagation speed, primary and successive events, phase evolution and El Niño /Southern Oscillation- ENSO state) have different influences on the predictability of extreme precipitation.
 

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

An integrated view of the American Monsoon Systems: observations, models and probabilistic forecasts

PI: L. Carvalho, Co-PI: C. Jones, Co-PI: B. Liebmann   

Period: 08/01/2010-076/31/2013

This project focuses on the interactions between the North American Monsoon System (NAMS) and South American Monsoon System (SAMS) and identification of common sources and limits of summer season predictability. The main theme of this proposal is to develop a unified view of the American Monsoon System (AMS). The project evaluates the ability of global models from the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) to simulate the variability of the AMS in the present climate. The project is comprised of four interconnected main goals. First, the project will investigate the extent to which the annual evolution of NAMS and SAMS and their temporal variability on ISI time scales can be represented with metrics that effectively describe changes in precipitation and atmospheric circulation in the Americas. Second, this will identify regional physical processes and teleconnections that control the interactions between NAMS and SAMS. Third, this project will evaluate the skill of WCRP CMIP coupled models in representing the observed variations in the AMS. Lastly, this project will implement diagnostic monitoring tools, identify sources of potential predictability and develop probabilistic forecasts of the AMS on subseasonal to seasonal scales.

Specific objectives are:
I. Develop and validate indices for a unified approach to monitor and forecast the variability of the monsoon systems in the Americas.
II. Investigate the associations between the two monsoon systems, the importance of regional processes and remote atmosphere-ocean variations on intraseasonal-to-interannual (ISI) time scales in explaining these linkages.
III. Examine the degree to which simulations from the WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-3 and CMIP-5) realistically represent the AMS and associations between the monsoons in the Americas.
IV. Use NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) model outputs (reforecasts and operational) to develop probabilistic forecasts of the American Monsoon Systems on subseasonal to seasonal lead times. Identify potential predictability sources of the AMS on ISI time scales.
 

CGIAR-CCAFS: Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research - Climate Change: Agriculture and Food Security

International Potato Center (CPI), Lima Peru

Regional Climate Variability and Changes in the Central Andes

PI: L. Carvalho, Co-PI: C. Jones    Period: 01/01/2012-12/31/2015

This collaborative work focuses on regional climate variability and changes over the central Andes with an emphasis on potential impacts on water resources and food security particularly potato crop productions and vulnerability. Research activities will be developed under the theme “Integration for decision making” and divided in the following objectives:

  I.     Analysis of climate variability and changes in the central Andes

II.     Development of climate downscaling methods

III.     Analysis of climate variability in South America and vulnerability assessments

 

Previous Projects

USAID- International Potato Center, Lima Peru

Statistical Physics Climatic Downscaling: Combining Wavelet, Multifractal and Neural Network Approaches in a Unified Scaling Methodology

PI: L. Carvalho, Co-PI: C. Jones    Period: 04/15/2010-10/15/2010

 

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Probabilistic Forecasts of Extreme Events and Weather Hazards over the United States

PI: C. Jones, Co-PI: L. Carvalho    Period: 07/01/2008-12/31/2011

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Understanding the Mechanisms of Onset and Demise of the South American Monsoon System

PI: C. Jones, Co-PI: L. Carvalho    Period: 08/01/2007-07/31/2010

US Department of Agriculture (US Forest Service), 02-JV-1272169-0045
Analysis of Santa Ana Climatology for Southern California

PI: C. Jones, Co-PI: D. Roberts   Period: 07/01/2006-10/31/2010

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

An Investigation of Intraseasonal Oscillations in the Atmosphere and their Interannual Variations

PI: C. Jones, Co-PI: L. Carvalho    Period: 08/01/2005-07/31/2009

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Variability of Extreme precipitation events in South America: An Assessment on Intraseasonal, Interannual and Decadal Time Scales

PI: C. Jones, Co-PI: L. Carvalho    Period: 12/01/2000-11/30/2003

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Statistical Forecasts of Intraseasonal and Seasonal Variations of Precipitation and Temperature over the Western United States

PI: C. Jones, Co-PI:                         Period: 12/01/2000-11/30/2003

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Decadal Variations in Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations: Implications for the Pacific Sector

PI: C. Jones, Co-PI:                         Period: 06/01/2003-05/31/2005

National Science Foundation

Collaborative Research: The Nature and Predictability of the Madden and Julian Oscillation in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System

PI: C. Jones, Co-PI:                        Period: 07/15/2001-12/31/2005

National Science Foundation

Collaborative Research: The Nature and Predictability of the Madden and Julian Oscillation in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System

PI: C. Jones, Co-PI: C. Gautier     Period: 09/01/1997-08/31/2001

NASA

The Role of North African Mineral Aerosols in Climate and Biogeochemistry

PI: N. Mahowald, Co-PI: C. Jones     Period: 06/01/2000-05/31/2004

NASA

A Satellite Approach to Investigate Air-sea Interaction Processes

PI: C. Jones, Co-PI: C. Gautier         Period: 07/24/2000-09/26/2004

USDA Forest Service

High-resolution Real-time Forecasts for Southern California: Applications to Wildfire Management

PI: C. Jones, Co-PI: D. Roberts         Period: 07/01/2002-06/30/2007

NASA

Center for Managing Fire Hazards at the Urban-Wildlands Interface

PI: D. Roberts, Co-PI: C. Jones         Period: 03/03/1999-02/28/2003

University of California Water Resources Center

Assessment of intraseasonal variations in California rainfall and the role of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

PI: C. Jones, Co-PI:                             Period: 07/01/1998-09/30/2000

UCAR COMET

Investigation of Mesoscale Wind Patterns in the California Bight: Influence on Extreme Precipitation Events

PI: C. Jones, Co-PI:                             Period: 12/01/1999-03/31/2001

JPL

Moisture Budget Variations during Episodes of Intense Westerly Wind Bursts

PI: C. Jones, Co-PI:                             Period: 10/01/1998-04/30/2000

 


 

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Last modified: 10/17/12